Kypreos 1 - Sanity 0

I am not really a fan of the NHL's All Star Game. Having said that, I think the league did a pretty good job of drumming up some interest in this years contest, rolling out a new format, with two captains going through a draft to pick theirteams. This process would obviously leave one guy getting picked last, which when you are drafting from 36 of the best hockey players in the world, probably isn't a big deal. Plus to ease the pain, the last pick would get a car and $20,000 for a charity of their choice. Overall this seems like a no-lose situation.

That is until the captains had the audacity to pick the greatest player, who plays for the greatest franchise in the history of team sports, last. This caused distension from the biggest Leaf fans in Canada – people employed by supposedly unbiased national sports networks. The worst offender was without doubt, Sportsnet's Nick Kypreos. You can read, and watch, his thoughts here (Warning, This link may cause a rational person symptoms which include, but are not limited: confusion, annoyance, anger, befuddlement, and depression. The writers of the blog take no responsibility for these or any other health issues that may arise.)

Personally my favourite part of the article is this:
I know some say no big deal, and to that I say you're right if the last player was Jeff Skinner from the Carolina Hurricanes or Paul Stastny from the Colorado Avalanche, but because it was a Leaf I say you're wrong.

You can not be serious.

First of all, both of these guys have more points, and a better plus/minus than Mr. Kessel. Which is almost definitely what captains Eric Staal and Nik Lidstrom were working of off. Of course we are not the biggest fans of these stats so we can dig a little deeper. Skinner greatly outperform Kessel in terms of RelCorsi (4.7 to -1.9). While Stastny comes in a little lower at -2.2. Skinner and Stastny are both being carried by very high PDOs 1027 and 1021 respective, while Kessel is getting killed by his 959. Looking a little deeper, there probably isn't a ton to choose between these players.

However, Kypreos was not saying it was a big deal because Kessel is better than guys picked before him. He said it was a big deal because Kessel is a Leaf. He goes on to imply that there was some sort of conspiracy between the players drafting to force Kessel down the draft board (this comes up more in the video clip as well). This is, of course, completely insane. Kypreos criticizes Ryan Kesler for not picking his USA Olympic teammate. He suggests Ovechkin was taking extra pleasure in taking pictures of the last person left sitting being a Leaf. The fact that he thinks that other players possibly got together on this is beyond stupid. It's insane!

Overall, I think the coverage this “incident” received is embarrassing for all journalists, especially Kypreos and Sportsnet. This was a fun event, designed for the fans. I think most people that watched, and players that were involved seem to genuinely have some fun with the event. Then Kypreos and Sportsnet ran with this angle, which was at the intellectual level you'd expect to get from a drunk in a Wendel Clark jersey at 2 am. I wish I could say I expected better, but at this point, I really can't.

The Useless Hockey Player

Steve MacIntyre is on pace to play a career high number of games this season. At 14 already and just over half way through the season, it is fairly likely that he get in to 25-30 games this year (previous high, 22). Though at 3:55 of ice time per night, he will be on the ice for about the same amount of time this season that Tom Gilbert will play in around 4 games. In spite of this, you don't have to look too hard to find people proclaiming the necessity and value of having Steve MacIntyre on your hockey club. Jim Matheson's article here shows Tom Renney, a man paid money to coach hockey, talking about the virtues of having the 250lb goon in the line.

“Moving forward, he’s going to play more and he’ll make his contribution in other ways outside of the obvious,” said Renney.

“Ways outside the obvious” might be the understatement of the year. The implication, of course, is that with MacIntyre in the lineup, the rest of the team will be free of worry of other teams goons beating them up, giving them space to play the game. This sentiment, in my opinion, is completely insane. In order to actually deter anyone from taking runs at stars like Hall, Eberle, and Hemsky, you probably at least need to occasionally step on the ice. It would be even better if you were able to skate well enough to actually catch up to a guy you want to go after.

That's not to say that MacIntyre does nothing out there. He is an average of an alarming 5.5 penalties per 60 minutes of ice time. The next highest on the Oilers is Linus Omark at 1.8. MacIntyre leads the league in this category (when considering only players that have got in to at least 10 games this year). Not only that, he is getting absolutely dominated in the shots department. A Relative Corsi of -20.2 is just ugly. The only reason he is getting scored against more often is a PDO of 1.017, and the fact that he just doesn't play very much. In his 3:55 seconds of ice time, the Oilers get absolutely dominated.

Yet Tom Renney insists on continuing to put him in the lineup. 14 times and counting. You only get to dress 20 skaters a night, and carry 23 players on your roster. Spending one of those on a guy that makes no positive contribution to the team winning is completely ridiculous. The Oilers have the leagues worst penalty kill, and second worst power play. They are 1-6 in the shootout. For what it is worth, they are also 2nd last in faceoff win percentage. If you are going to dress a player that can only play about 4 minutes at even strength, why can't they at least be able to contribute as a specialist to something that might actually help win games. Liam Reddox could have been up earlier to help the penalty kill; Linus Omark could have been in the lineup for the shootout, and maybe the power play.

Steve MacIntyre is not the reason the Edmonton Oilers are in second last place in the entire league. However, his existence on the roster is just one more reason for Oiler fans to question if the people running the team have the ability to ever substantially improve the team beyond this level. There was a time when the Oilers talked of “The Detroit Model” of team building, which they seem to have taken to mean they need to employ a lot of front office staff. They don't seem to realize that one key thing that Detroit does is not dress a completely useless hockey player. The Oilers have done this 14 times already this year, and if the head coach has any say in it, they will be dressing one even more often down the stretch. Seems like a recipe for success to me!

I Can’t Believe My First Entry About A Guy Named “Pierre” Is Lebrun

Actual transcript from an ESPN SportsNation fan chat with ESPN, CBC, and Sportsnet analyst Pierre Lebrun:

Phil (Pittsburgh)
If hockey ever gets to the level of statistical analysis that is done in baseball, what is the one stat that you would want to see measured (or isn't measured now)?

Pierre LeBrun
I don't want more stats (5:01 PM)

As God as my witness, this blog ceases the second I hear Pierre Lebrun mention the following things:

Corsi
Even strength save percentage
PDO number
Shooting percentage while mentioning treading to the mean
Fenwick
Penalty kill save percentage
Points per 60
Zonestart
Quality of competition the stat, not some flimsy anecdotal narrative

Heck, I’d even be okay with some passing mention of how Ryan Kesler’s grit or leadership matters as much as his favourite slurpee flavour. Alas, I don’t have high hopes.

As for Phil in Pittsburgh, the Israelites wandering around the wilderness for 40 years weren't this lost. I truly hope you one day find your Moses.

Tom Brady: More Clutch Than A 6-Speed

Don Banks writes his weekly thoughts on the NFL at si.com every Monday. Today was a real doozy because his title, “clutch quarterbacks, playoff re-seeding, more snaps” touched on one of my favourite topics – identifying who the true “big game” quarterbacks are at the NFL level. Shockingly, (or not if you read mainstream football writers with any regularity) Banks’ model of analysis to decide this was wins and losses. What is highly sophisticated and infallible to him stinks of simplicity and laziness to me.

Banks goes on to write glowingly about Ben Roethlisberger,* Jay Cutler, and Aaron Rodgers while lamenting that Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan might have been playing in games that were, “too big for them,” and “games like this weekend separate the great quarterbacks from the merely good.”

*Banks also mentions hall of fame and Ben Roethlisberger in the same sentence. Now I think Ben Roethlisberger is a fine quarterback, but simply isn’t hall of fame calibre by any measure except wins.  When I think of quarterbacks my team is scared to play, the rape barely cracks the top 10. I fear Pittsburgh’s running game more than Big Ben and I certainly fear Pittsburgh’s defence more than Big Ben. There’s already a lot of opposition to the hall being overrepresented with quarterbacks and running backs, Roethlisberger’s induction will only fuel that fire.  

Reading the few paragraphs Banks put together, he forgets to mention one glaring bum-chin sized omission who, using Banks’ logic, must also have went from “great” to “good” because he lost this weekend. That would be the decade’s golden boy of clutch of course – Ugh Brady.* Yes, Ugh’s team lost on Sunday to extend their Super Bowl-less reign to a 7^th year. But while Banks and most of the football media gives Brady another free pass, Peyton Manning still wallows in his media reputation of postseason choker after losing last week to sexy Rexy Ryan’s New York Jets. Funny how that works. Especially considering Manning’s Colts have won the Super Bowl more recently than New England.

*Ugg is of course the Australian shoe brand Tom Brady endorses. “Ugh” is what I think when I see Tom Brady’s hairstyle. I feel the nickname is a perfect synergy. But as a sidenote, isn’t Tom Brady promoting Uggs a little bit like Rosie O’ Donnell endorsing a Chainsaw? I mean, I’m sure there are a few husky women in B.C. who can slice a northern pine lickety-split but I’ll bet 98% of Husqvarna’s customers still have a y chromosome. 

But I would be remiss if I didn’t offer some context here. You see, Ugh started his career with enough postseason success to make Joe Montana blush, a 9-0 record and three Super Bowls in four years. From coast to coast he was lauded as a big game quarterback, unflappable, a riser to the occasion, a winner, and that magical sporting super-trait, clutch. Yes, no matter how far back the Patriots were in those first 9 playoff games, no matter how dire any situation looked, no matter how putrid the offence was early on, Pats fans had hope because they had the most clutch and biggest game quarterback in the league. He led game winning drives and won Super Bowl MVPs. Even if Manning was better during the regular season, Brady was always better when it mattered according to the media. And those are the two traits GM’s want over everything else, they told us, being a winner and being clutch. Brady had those in spades like no one else supposedly.

Funny how his big gaming clutchness disappeared in his prime at 27 while a real, tangible trait like arm strength stays intact until about 35.

In his last 10 postseason games, the big game winner, Mr. Clutch, has a 5-5 record. Conveniently the media reconciles with that ugly little nugget by ignoring it.  Good luck ignoring this though. Here are big game Brady’s cumulative numbers over that 5-5 spell:

234/378 61.9% 2456 yds 19tds/13ints

I’m too lazy to figure out Brady’s quarterback rating over that time but I do know he only went over 100 three times in an individual game during that ten game span. Wait, this goes contrary to everything the omniscient media has ever told me about Tom Brady. I thought big game quarterbacks like him were supposed to elevate their games another level when playing in the playoffs and backs against the wall?

Here’s something sweet. Brady’s career passer rating over the entire postseason, 3 Super Bowl seasons included, is 85.4. Brady’s career regular season passer rating is 95.2. Geeze, maybe we’ve been wrong all along. Maybe Ugh is the dreaded anti-clutch like Greg Norman, Marian Hossa, Wilt Chamberlain, and gulp, Peyton Manning. Manning by the way has an 88.4 playoff passer rating. WHASSUPWITAT? Peyton Manning > Tom Brady by playoff passer rating!!!!!!! I feel like the whole world is lying to me.     

All this brings me to my fundamental point that:

a)      clutch doesn’t exist; but more importantly

b)      FOOTBALL IS A TEAM GAME.

Twenty-four players play equally important roles during the same number of snaps. That means defences, offensive lineman, and running backs all contribute to the winning and losing of a football game. It’s not just about the quarterback. Who knew?

Saying someone is a “big game quarterback” and then immediately quoting his record as a post-season starter (hi Ben Roethlisberger – because Pittsburgh’s defence has never been very good) is as forward-thinking as appointing Jared Loughner to Secretary of State. 

Here’s some interesting numbers for Banks and all those other “Wins is the only stat that matters” journalist hacks. The New England Patriots’ points allowed per game in the post season:

Super Bowl Seasons (9 Postseason Games) – 17.2

When Tom Brady Stopped Being Clutch (Next 10 Playoff Games) – 21.5

Wow, seems like once the Pats lost key defensive players like Ty Law, Lawyer Milloy, and Willie McGinest, Brady started to become less clutch. Now it’s been a while since I’ve taken philosophy 100, but can a logical deduction follow that it might, just might be possible, that having a good defence can make create an illusion of clutch quarterbacking? Or am I the only one who recognizes that Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and ANY great quarterback can only influence half of a football game, much the same way a pitcher only has control over how many runs the other team scores?

Actually I’ve heard Ben Roethlisberger is so clutch that he compels his defence to be dominant through pathologic mind waves.* Somewhere along the way Big Ben must have stolen all of Brady’s big-gameness genetic. Sexy Rexy’s feet are probably quaking in his boots. Nothing is more powerful than the mythical.

*That’s probably how he tries to pick up women too. Monster Truck Wheels.

My 30 Thoughts: Brought To You By The COTU

I want to preface this post by saying Elliotte Friedman seems like a quality guy who means well. I actually like him quite a bit in most of his work. He doesn’t come across as a smug bozo like Damien Cox. He doesn’t seem to think he’s a pompous know-it-all like Steve Simmons. No, I genuinely believe Friedman works hard, is an intelligent guy, attempts to write with reason, and is open-minded enough to accept new ideas, alternative opinions, and gives them strong due consideration if warranted.

With all that said, Friedman is collecting a cheque from my tax dollars - not that there’s anything wrong with that.[i] But if my tax dollars are being spent on a national commentator who works for a publicly-funded media outlet, I’d like see, you know…. some national commentary. That’s not too much to ask is it?  All I want is a little balance.   

Of course, balance doesn’t seem to rank high on CBC or Friedman’s agenda. Here is the last edition of his 30 Thoughts.  Usually, the anecdotes run the gamut of semi-informative to fairly interesting and all things considered, are a solid weekly feature. Where I take exception is Friedman’s blatant Toronto boner. The one I’ve linked to isn’t as guilty, but a quick check of the archives is a lot more revealing.

Since October 4, Friedman’s 30 Thoughts break down thusly by team:

Edmonton Oilers – 13

Calgary Flames – 15

Vancouver Canucks – 21  

Toronto Maple Leafs – 36[ii]

As Dr. Evil at one point said, “riiiigggghhhtttt.” Western Canada only gets 13 more mentions than the COTU combined.[iii]

The scary thing is that the Leafs have nothing even interesting to write about this year. Nazem Kadri is a plug, Ron Wilson and Brian Burke aren’t getting fired, the team is destined to finish in 10-15th in the east this year, and far and away most comforting to me, they don’t have their first round pick again.[iv]

      I shudder to think what will happen when journalists actually have a semi-exciting storyline to write about regarding the Leafs.[v] What if they had the best record in the league, fired their GM mid-season, or even had the first overall pick and another bonafide Calder candidate skating for them this season?[vi]  It’s a rhetorical question but I’ll answer it anyway: The coverage would have more hype than Michael Jackson’s resurrection and comeback CD.

     

      If anything like this happens to the Leafs in the next couple of years, you can bet the hyperbole becomes thicker than Brian Burke’s hair product. I predict the following storylines if the Toronto has something similar happen to them as any of western Canada’s teams this year:·       

• NEW GM IS THE BEST HIRE EVER. LEAFS ARE CUP CONTENDORS TOMORROW EVEN WITH 0-37-3 RECORD!!!!!!!!
  
  I can see Friedman’s intro now:  “He read Principia Mathematica at 8. Received a triple degree from MIT in subatomic physics, kinetic engineering, and Latin by 19. He’s the rumored architect of the Abu Dhabi skyline and the certain architect of a future championship NHL team.”[vii]
  

• LEAFS SIT IN FIRST OVERALL WITH A 20-4-2 RECORD. MIGHT AS WELL GIVE THEM A BYE TO THE FINALS. WE’VE GOT A DYNASTY ON OUR HANDS BABY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  
  This would be an outright disaster if it ever happened. We would hear story after story about how the Leaf’s fanbase has thirsted for this since ’67, how good it is for the NHL that the league’s pre-eminent team is first overall

• THE LEAFS NUMBER ONE OVERALL PICK IS A GENERATIONAL TALENT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  
  Of course buddy will be tracking like Patrik Stefan in his rookie year and by the time he hits game 75 he’ll be making snide comments to the press about how he there wouldn’t be so much pressure in Anaheim while wearing an I Heart California t-shirt.

Now I realize the theme of this post has morphed into overhype instead of overexposure post. But I have clinged to the following equation for a long time that is very applicable in this situation.

Overexposure = Public Overhype = Resulting Media Overhype

Remember Team Canada at the World Junior’s this year? They were supposed to be a lunch bucket, blue collar team with no superstars but more heart than usual.[ix] But then Brayden Schenn started to score a little bit and the media started claiming “Team Canada has a superstar.” That was good enough for your average Don Cherry hockey fan[x] who latched onto Schenn-mania. Now the media hype is never ending. His trade to the Saskatoon Blades made national news. The kid all of a sudden is viewed as a can’t miss prospect. Etc. etc.

Of course, this formula works most hilariously with the Toronto Maple Leafs. Good grief, I remember working in Toronto when Robbie Earl[xi] somehow managed two points in his NHL debut. One quick look at his AHL stats should have signaled he was a mediocre player to anyone with a half-functioning brain. Yet TSN ran a story about him the next day and the Robbie Earl cult was born. Pretty soon, Robbie Earl the hockey player became “Robbie Earl, discoverer of  the polio vaccination, Nobel Prize Laureate, and the Blue and White’s SAVIOUR,” all over Toronto.

I’m getting worked up here. I need a valium.

Breathe…

And again…

Whew…..

Okay granted, TSN and Elliotte Friedman have nothing to do with one another.[xii]  But they are both part of the national media and have an obvious affixation with the Maple Leafs.

Even when they’re on-ice performance is among the worst in the league, there’s always something to write about.

---

[i] Similarly, that’s my primary income source. Aside from pushing drugs for a Mexican cartel in Tijuana that is. Yee-haw.

[ii] For those interested parties, Ottawa has 23. Montreal has 28.

[iii] COTU = Centre of the universe = Toronto. You’ll see a lot of that acronym here.

[iv] I love how Ron Wilson defended this trade before Seguin’s first NHL game. “Phil Kessel is a 40 goal scorer. How many goals does Seguin have?” Here’s a history lesson Ron, the last ten 2^nd overall picks have the following surnames: Hedman, Doughty, VanRiemsdyk, Staal (Jordan), Ryan, Malkin, Staal (Eric), Lehtonen, Spezza, Heatley. I would say half are CERTAINLY better than The Thrill, three could go either way, and two are worse (Lehtonen, VanRiemsdyk). In any event, I think my point remains. Ron Wilson is a dummy.  

[v] Whoops, I forgot. I love waffles. They are so exciting and awesome!!!!!! What terrific fans Toronto has!!!!!!!

[vi] Is it my own western bias that I think the 3 most exciting storylines for Canadian teams this year are all based left of Manitoba?

[vii] Coincidentally, this happened when Brian Burke was hired too. Who knew Toronto journalists weren’t prophetic.

[viii] Kind of like how the Yankees have to be contenders for baseball. It’s an argument that’s always lacked intelligence to me.

[ix] Whatever on God’s green earth that means. That’s the kind of in-depth analysis that we love here.

[x] Is the guy who believes toughness and heart wins hockey games. Is also usually the guy who yells “shooooooot” on the powerplay.

[xi] Yes the perennial Hart candidate Robbie Earl.

[xii] More about TSN’s awesomeness in later posts.

Prologue

To be quite honest, I don't yet know what this blog will be about. While the issues laid out by my collaborator will certainly be front and center, I fully expect this blog to change, evolve, and improve over time. I also expect things improving over time to confuse any readers who are unfortunate enough to be fans of the Toronto Maple Leafs.

I expect the majority of my writing willing focus on the game of hockey. As most Canadians, it is the game I've grown up with. It is a game I've come to love, and sometimes hate. It is a game that millions of people around the world are absolutely fanatical about. Yet it is a game that seems to be not all that well understood.

There is certainly not a lack of people who think they understand the game of hockey. Be it on the various expert panels on television, on local and national sports talk radio, or on the pages of the fine – and not so fine – newspapers across this county, you will find literally hundreds of people being paid to explain the game to the world. However, after reading, watching, and listening for thousands of hours I'm left reaching one obvious conclusion: Almost none of these guys know what they are talking about.

I certainly don't claim to have all the answers. I do believe that there are much better explanations than the ones so often provided on a daily basis. I hope through this blog to search for these explanations, to better my understanding of the game, and to have some fun at the expense of the so called experts along the way.

Finally, I have to disagree with the original post on one item. I have not heard enough Don Cherry rants. He's past the point of being relevant in any way, but purely as comedy, I must admit that I enjoy every segment he is on.

Much more to come...

Pilot

I can’t remember exactly when I stumbled onto the collective incompetence of sportswriters, but I do remember a sweeping alteration of how I understand the games I watch and love.

This blog idea has been percolating within my cerebrum for a couple of years. With the cooperation of my partner, it has finally become a reality. The site will serve a couple of functions. First, it will attempt rational explanations for a lot of junk written by the omniscient and omnipresent mainstream media. We believe in Corsi and PDO numbers, OBP and BABIP, even strength save percentage and shooting percentage. We absolutely don’t believe in gripping the sticks too tightly and youthful enthusiasm, pitching wins and RBI’s, or that clutch and truculence are tangible skills. If you’re a retar… excuse me… believer in the latter list, we encourage you to read and learn about our views. Just don’t try to convince me that Jordan Eberle is clutch.  

Secondly, I don’t recommend visiting this blog if you’re a fan of Toronto or central Canada in general. There will be some pretty critical stuff of the region, its sports teams, and especially its place in Canadian sports. The authors of this site are from western Canada – we don’t care about central Canada and have grown to loathe the disproportionate media coverage the region receives, the shocking stupidity of said disproportionate media coverage, and the holier than thou attitude that radiates from there.

Yes, after reading one too many Damien Cox articles, after hearing one too many Steve Simmons ideas, after listening to one too many Don Cherry tirades, after digesting one too many Brian Burke press conferences about nonsense like “truculence,” we’ve finally snapped. 

Is that a creepy civic centre janitor or an esteemed Toronto-based journalist?

Please read, comment (though that Eberle threat is very, very real), and enjoy. We have no idea how long we plan to do this for. But so long as there are still ninnies out there like this guy saying Tom Gilbert’s contract is an albatross, we should have plenty of material to keep us busy.