We’re a little late to the party for round three due to my vacation to the bustling community of Louis Head, Nova Scotia. Okay, I’ve only spent the last 10 hours there.* But Louis Head showed me enough in those 600 minutes to give me serious retirement plans. A private beach with a home cooked meal of lobster and seafood chowder will do that to a guy. As gay as this sounds, I felt like I was living in a home you see in one of those chick flicks like the Notebook or Dear John.
*The other 86 hours have been spent in Halifax.
The first game of the Eastern Final has already occurred. As unbelievable as this may sound to some people, I was picking Tampa Bay all along despite their game one win. They remind me of the 2006 Oilers actually – a great even strength possession team who got boned by not having NHL-calibre goaltending for three quarters of the year until Zeus Roloson showed up. Only thing more awesome about T-bay than Edmonton in ‘06 is my boy Eric Brewer being a part of it all. What a stud.
Before I get into the round three picks I have to issue a small disclaimer. My paper that had each team’s even strength fenwick number written down is in Regina. Thus, I am making my picks from memory. I know Tampa is my pick for the Eastern Final because I remember being shocked to discover them having the second best fenwick number in the east behind Pittsburgh. But I can’t remember who had the better number out of the two western teams left. I think it was Van city but I’m not certain. Thus, I’m invoking a one-time only freedom pick because my hate for the Canucks transcends anything since the Flamers run before the lockout.
Watching Vancouver this playoffs makes me think how worked up I would get if the Leafs made a run one of these years since I had a mostly limited hate for Vancouver prior to a few years ago. Luckily, it’s the Leafs which means this is a moot point because they suck.*
*Here’s something that warms my heart. Since the expansion era in 1972, the Leafs are 1 of only seven teams to never win or make a cup final. The other seven – Atlanta, C-Bus, Minny, Nashville, Phoenix, and San Jose – weren’t around until the 1990’s. Bravo Toronto. You have a hell of a franchise.
The following are round two results from our prediction thread. Cumulative score from the first and second round are in brackets.
Matthew Barnaby: 2-2 (9-3)
Damien Cox: 3-1 (9-3)
MD: 3-1 (8-4)
Durf: 3-1 (7-5)
LeBrun: 1-3 (7-5)
Brophy/Spector: 1-3 (6-6)
Here are the round 3 picks:
Barnaby: Canucks, Lightning
Cox: Canucks, Lightning*
MD: Canucks, Lightning
Durf: Sharks, Lightning
LeBrun: Sharks, Lightning
Brophy/Spector: Canucks, Lightning
*I couldn’t find Damien Cox’s actual prediction in the west final but he did write an article about the Sharks being underdogs. Thus, I took the liberty of choosing the Canucks for him. And yes I’m aware that doing this is the only way I can gain any ground on him this round.
May 15, 2011
May 10, 2011
A Lesson About Zonestarts
The Vancouver Canucks have always been a bunch of douches. The reasons aren’t limited to one. Their retarded looking jerseys have always seemed like they were designed by a 4 year old; the west coast express era was particularly unlikable because of one Todd Bertuzzi; their idiotic fans boo the opposing team instead of cheer for their own bunch of losers; they once employed Brian Burke as their G.M.; I don’t think I need to say much more but I’ll end with one last word, “LOOOOOOUUUUUUUUUUUUU.”
But for all of the Canucks’ douchey history, 2011’s team takes the cake. The dink quotient of this squad is almost off the charts. Kevin Bieksa, Alex Burrows, Ryan Kesler, and Raffi Torres are a murderer’s row of jackasses. Then you’ve got goobers like Max Lapierre and Rick Rypien playing fourth line roles as first class chumps. Not to be outdone, Mike Gillis and his abacus complains about the biased refereeing of the Chicago-Vancouver series while his players are taking better dives than Alexander Despatie. It’s all sickening and I haven’t even mentioned the Sedin sisters yet.
Unfortunately, Vancouver has managed to make the third round against the San Jose-Detroit series winner and look poised for a potential Stanley Cup berth. No matter what happens, it’s got to be considered another successful season in the pacific.
A big reason for Vancouver’s success over the last few years is the play of Daniel and Henrik. The media has pointed to them emerging as bonafide superstars over the last few seasons. While possibly true, I feel a lot of those accolades wouldn’t have come if not for the emergence of a few of their other players, namely Manny Malhotra and the aforementioned clean-up hitter for the murderer’s row of jackasses, Ryan Kesler.
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I think anyone who has played hockey can agree that it’s a lot easier to score points when you’re starting in the opponents’ zone off the draw. It’s like coming up to bat with a runner on second. Scoring isn’t a given but it’s a whole lot easier to pad that RBI total when someone’s done a good chunk of the work for you already and gotten you into a scoring position.
Gabriel Desjardins’s zonestart statistic measures how often a player is on the ice for a faceoff in the defensive zone versus the offensive zone. Since coaches have total control – icing situations excepted – over who they send over the boards for a faceoff, zonestart assesses how coaches run their bench. It is a great tool for evaluating the circumstances players are put into – coming to the plate with the bases empty or with runners in scoring position as an analogy.
Zonestart is presented by a percentage. For example, if a player has a 50% zonestart, he has taken an equal number of draws in both the offensive and defensive zones over the course of the season. One look at the Vancouver Canucks’ zonestart rates and we can see how fortunate of a situation Alain Vigneault has created for the Sedins. This is for Canuck forwards who have played a minimum of 40 games in 2011:
Daniel Sedin – 74.5%
Henrik Sedin – 71.4%
Alex Burrows – 70.5%
Mason Raymond – 55.6%
Ryan Kesler – 50.0%
Jeff Tambellini – 49.4%
Mikael Samuelsson – 49.1%
Maxim Lapierre – 46.4%
Chris Higgins – 46.3%
Tanner Glass – 39.1%
Jannik Hansen – 34.3%
Raffi Torres – 29.6%
Manny Malhotra – 25.0%
This is just an insane split. If you assume Daniel Sedin has been on the ice for 300 faceoffs throughout the season, 223 of them have taken place in the offensive zone. On the other hand, poor Manny Malhotra has been taking 225 defensive zone draws if you assume he’s also been on for 300 total draws.
The 2010 season (Henrik’s Hart trophy year), while not as severe, tells a similar story. The Sedins had a zonestart hovering around 60% that year while Ryan Kesler was starting in the defensive zone 55% of the time.
How does this compare to other premier players in the league? Well check out the zonestarts for the following players in 2011:
Alexander Ovechkin – 51.6%
Sidney Crosby – 47.0%
Steven Stamkos – 49.8%
Joe Thornton – 51.8%
Pavel Datsyuk – 47.7%
Henrik Zetterberg – 47.6%
Jonathan Toews – 62.1%
Rick Nash – 57.1%
As you can see, the Sedins play in very favourable circumstances compared to the rest of the league’s elite. While most coaches use their best players evenly between offensive and defensive zone opportunities, Vigneault lets the Sedins start their shift almost exclusively in the offensive zone.
Not surprisingly, the sisters led all players in the NHL in zonestart by a very wide margin in 2011. After Burrows, the next highest was Patrick Kane who had a 68% zonestart. The next player of note on the list after Kane is Marian Gaborik at 63%.
Compared to the rest of the league in 2010, Daniel was 12th overall in with Henrik finishing just outside of the top 30.
Next time you watch the Canucks, notice how often the Sedins come on for an offensive faceoff. It’s startling. And honestly, Vigneault is playing the sisters to their strength. The Sedins are probably the best two-man cycling team in the NHL. When the sisters start the cycle, they usually don’t get knocked off the puck. Starting them in the offensive zone gives them a very good chance to start their dangerous cycle that often times results in a scoring chance.
So the question begs, how much are the Sedins affected by their inflated zonestarts? Over 300 faceoffs, the difference between a 75% and 50% zonestart is 75 more draws in the offensive zone over the course of a season. Make no mistake, that does matter. How much? Well, it’s impossible to quantify but I’d be willing to bet it’s somewhere between 5 and 7 points a season.
If my estimates are in the ballpark, that means the Sedins’ point totals are inflated compared to a Sidney Crosby or Joe Thornton who have much more balanced zonestarts. Are the Sedins still great hockey players? Absolutely. Are they in the top 10 league-wide? I’m not so sure. Consider this: when they were receiving more even zonestarts in 2009 and 2008 (slightly above 50%), their point totals hovered around a point per game. Their two year run among the league’s top scorers has coincided with a two year run of getting some of the best zonestarts in the league. Go figure. Context is a wonderful thing.
But for all of the Canucks’ douchey history, 2011’s team takes the cake. The dink quotient of this squad is almost off the charts. Kevin Bieksa, Alex Burrows, Ryan Kesler, and Raffi Torres are a murderer’s row of jackasses. Then you’ve got goobers like Max Lapierre and Rick Rypien playing fourth line roles as first class chumps. Not to be outdone, Mike Gillis and his abacus complains about the biased refereeing of the Chicago-Vancouver series while his players are taking better dives than Alexander Despatie. It’s all sickening and I haven’t even mentioned the Sedin sisters yet.
Unfortunately, Vancouver has managed to make the third round against the San Jose-Detroit series winner and look poised for a potential Stanley Cup berth. No matter what happens, it’s got to be considered another successful season in the pacific.
A big reason for Vancouver’s success over the last few years is the play of Daniel and Henrik. The media has pointed to them emerging as bonafide superstars over the last few seasons. While possibly true, I feel a lot of those accolades wouldn’t have come if not for the emergence of a few of their other players, namely Manny Malhotra and the aforementioned clean-up hitter for the murderer’s row of jackasses, Ryan Kesler.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I think anyone who has played hockey can agree that it’s a lot easier to score points when you’re starting in the opponents’ zone off the draw. It’s like coming up to bat with a runner on second. Scoring isn’t a given but it’s a whole lot easier to pad that RBI total when someone’s done a good chunk of the work for you already and gotten you into a scoring position.
Gabriel Desjardins’s zonestart statistic measures how often a player is on the ice for a faceoff in the defensive zone versus the offensive zone. Since coaches have total control – icing situations excepted – over who they send over the boards for a faceoff, zonestart assesses how coaches run their bench. It is a great tool for evaluating the circumstances players are put into – coming to the plate with the bases empty or with runners in scoring position as an analogy.
Zonestart is presented by a percentage. For example, if a player has a 50% zonestart, he has taken an equal number of draws in both the offensive and defensive zones over the course of the season. One look at the Vancouver Canucks’ zonestart rates and we can see how fortunate of a situation Alain Vigneault has created for the Sedins. This is for Canuck forwards who have played a minimum of 40 games in 2011:
Daniel Sedin – 74.5%
Henrik Sedin – 71.4%
Alex Burrows – 70.5%
Mason Raymond – 55.6%
Ryan Kesler – 50.0%
Jeff Tambellini – 49.4%
Mikael Samuelsson – 49.1%
Maxim Lapierre – 46.4%
Chris Higgins – 46.3%
Tanner Glass – 39.1%
Jannik Hansen – 34.3%
Raffi Torres – 29.6%
Manny Malhotra – 25.0%
This is just an insane split. If you assume Daniel Sedin has been on the ice for 300 faceoffs throughout the season, 223 of them have taken place in the offensive zone. On the other hand, poor Manny Malhotra has been taking 225 defensive zone draws if you assume he’s also been on for 300 total draws.
The 2010 season (Henrik’s Hart trophy year), while not as severe, tells a similar story. The Sedins had a zonestart hovering around 60% that year while Ryan Kesler was starting in the defensive zone 55% of the time.
How does this compare to other premier players in the league? Well check out the zonestarts for the following players in 2011:
Alexander Ovechkin – 51.6%
Sidney Crosby – 47.0%
Steven Stamkos – 49.8%
Joe Thornton – 51.8%
Pavel Datsyuk – 47.7%
Henrik Zetterberg – 47.6%
Jonathan Toews – 62.1%
Rick Nash – 57.1%
As you can see, the Sedins play in very favourable circumstances compared to the rest of the league’s elite. While most coaches use their best players evenly between offensive and defensive zone opportunities, Vigneault lets the Sedins start their shift almost exclusively in the offensive zone.
Not surprisingly, the sisters led all players in the NHL in zonestart by a very wide margin in 2011. After Burrows, the next highest was Patrick Kane who had a 68% zonestart. The next player of note on the list after Kane is Marian Gaborik at 63%.
Compared to the rest of the league in 2010, Daniel was 12th overall in with Henrik finishing just outside of the top 30.
Next time you watch the Canucks, notice how often the Sedins come on for an offensive faceoff. It’s startling. And honestly, Vigneault is playing the sisters to their strength. The Sedins are probably the best two-man cycling team in the NHL. When the sisters start the cycle, they usually don’t get knocked off the puck. Starting them in the offensive zone gives them a very good chance to start their dangerous cycle that often times results in a scoring chance.
So the question begs, how much are the Sedins affected by their inflated zonestarts? Over 300 faceoffs, the difference between a 75% and 50% zonestart is 75 more draws in the offensive zone over the course of a season. Make no mistake, that does matter. How much? Well, it’s impossible to quantify but I’d be willing to bet it’s somewhere between 5 and 7 points a season.
If my estimates are in the ballpark, that means the Sedins’ point totals are inflated compared to a Sidney Crosby or Joe Thornton who have much more balanced zonestarts. Are the Sedins still great hockey players? Absolutely. Are they in the top 10 league-wide? I’m not so sure. Consider this: when they were receiving more even zonestarts in 2009 and 2008 (slightly above 50%), their point totals hovered around a point per game. Their two year run among the league’s top scorers has coincided with a two year run of getting some of the best zonestarts in the league. Go figure. Context is a wonderful thing.
April 29, 2011
Playoff Picks - Reaction
AKA - The one where I am an idiot.
Matthew Barnaby: 7-1
Damien Cox: 6-2
Scott Cullen: 5-3
Mike Brophy/Mark Spector: 5-3
After taking 24 hours to absorb the disappointment of myself and Durf's failure in our first round of predictions, I decided to take a look and see if the series I ended up being wrong about were ones where the statistics indicated the potential for very close series (the answer to this was not really).
Looking at our records in the 4 series that went to 7 games, I noticed that our combined record in those series was 1-7 (MD: 1-3, Durf: 0-4), which seems very unlucky. The moral of the story is - of course - that a seven game series is a bit of a crap-shoot. Had the two game 7 overtimes gone the other way, Durf would have had the best record of anyone.
I also noticed one more thing when reviewing. My pick for the Tampa/Pittsburgh series was not correct based on the statistics. Tampa was 20.5%PP and 83.8%PK (Total 104.3%), Pittsburgh 15.8%PP and 86.1%PK (Total 101.9%), meaning that my pick for that series was actually Tampa, and my record was 5-3.
This brings the standings to:
Matthew Barnaby: 7-1
Damien Cox: 6-2
Scott Cullen: 5-3
Mike Brophy/Mark Spector: 5-3
Pierre Lebrun: 5-3
MD: 5-3
Durf: 4-4
Durf: 4-4
So in the end, my prediction abilities look slightly better, my basic math skills slightly worse, and I still have to try to sleep at night knowing I did worse than Damien Cox.
Enjoy the second round everyone.
April 28, 2011
Playoff Picks -- Round 2
Back here is our faceoff against various NHL “experts” in predicting the first round playoff matchups.
Who knows what kind of zany methodology the “experts” came up with – but it was probably a mish-mash of compete level, most active sticks, and proven playoff performers.
We kept it a little simpler and limited it to one stat of our choosing. I chose even strength fenwick. MD chose pp + pk percentage. We didn't choose wisely.
Here are the first round results:
Pierre Lebrun: 5-3
Matthew Barnaby: 7-1
Damien Cox: 6-2
Scott Cullen: 5-3
Mike Brophy/Mark Spector: 5-3
Durf: 4-4
MD: 4-4
The lesson as always…….. active sticks trump everything.
At the risk of embarrassing ourselves for a second time, here are our round 2 picks. Again, these are based only on who had the better pre-determined stat, nothing else.
Durf: Canucks, Sharks, Lightning, Flyers
MD: Canucks, Wings, Lightning, Flyers
And now, the experts:
Lebrun: Canucks, Wings, Caps, Flyers
Barnaby: Canucks, Sharks, Caps, Flyers
Cox: Canucks, Sharks, Caps, Bruins
Brophy/Spector: Canucks, Wings, Caps, Flyers
I searched for about 10 minutes for Cullen’s 2nd round picks but couldn’t find them. If anyone does, let me know and I’ll post them.
Who knows what kind of zany methodology the “experts” came up with – but it was probably a mish-mash of compete level, most active sticks, and proven playoff performers.
We kept it a little simpler and limited it to one stat of our choosing. I chose even strength fenwick. MD chose pp + pk percentage. We didn't choose wisely.
Here are the first round results:
Pierre Lebrun: 5-3
Matthew Barnaby: 7-1
Damien Cox: 6-2
Scott Cullen: 5-3
Mike Brophy/Mark Spector: 5-3
Durf: 4-4
MD: 4-4
The lesson as always…….. active sticks trump everything.
At the risk of embarrassing ourselves for a second time, here are our round 2 picks. Again, these are based only on who had the better pre-determined stat, nothing else.
Durf: Canucks, Sharks, Lightning, Flyers
MD: Canucks, Wings, Lightning, Flyers
And now, the experts:
Lebrun: Canucks, Wings, Caps, Flyers
Barnaby: Canucks, Sharks, Caps, Flyers
Cox: Canucks, Sharks, Caps, Bruins
Brophy/Spector: Canucks, Wings, Caps, Flyers
I searched for about 10 minutes for Cullen’s 2nd round picks but couldn’t find them. If anyone does, let me know and I’ll post them.
April 26, 2011
At Least He’s Not Doing Colour Alongside Mark Lee
After Patrice Bergeron takes a goaltender interference penalty to negate a Boston powerplay during the first period of Habs-Bruins game 6, Glenn Healy offers this gem:
“This is huge too because Boston now has to kill off this 5 on 3 without their best faceoff man.”
1 second of dead air.
2 seconds of dead air.
3 seconds of dead air.
Bob Cole, “but the Bruins won’t have to kill one off here as it’s 4 on 4.”
And CBC wonders why TSN has overtaken them when it comes to NHL coverage.
“This is huge too because Boston now has to kill off this 5 on 3 without their best faceoff man.”
1 second of dead air.
2 seconds of dead air.
3 seconds of dead air.
Bob Cole, “but the Bruins won’t have to kill one off here as it’s 4 on 4.”
And CBC wonders why TSN has overtaken them when it comes to NHL coverage.
This Must Be How Bollywood Fans Felt After Slumdog Millionaire Won Best Picture
I don’t understand Scott Cullen’s work sometimes. His player rankings seem as arbitrary as Skate Canada. He’s pretty long winded which is only good if you’re trying to hit a word count or get click-throughs for the ad beside your column. He also tends to forget that visual highlight packs and/or boxscores are readily accessible thanks to the internet which is the only explanation I can think of for why someone would write something as redundant as this.
But I’m not here to criticize. I give credit where it’s due. Cullen has written about the volatility of shooting percentage before, something we fervently believe in and promote here. And today he did this, -- link, a fair and well-researched post-mortem on the Edmonton Oilers but more importantly, an analysis based on tangible things like shot differential while limiting the use of empty terms like big body presence and tenacity.
Not only that, but he promotes the website, www.behindthenet.ca, that stats guys like us find indispensible. See, all that balderdash of PDO, Fenwick, points per 60, and zonestarts can be found here and is a creation of Gabriel Desjardins who is 49 years old, obese, wears bifocals, lives only on a diet of cheetos, resides in his mother’s basement, and has never watched a hockey game before in his life. No really, he doesn’t even know what icing is he’s such a nerd.
When he’s not looking at a spreadsheet to try and figure out the formula for how many beach babes Drew Doughty drills per month*, Desjardins has a master’s degree from Cal Berkley in electrical engineering and is an analytics consultant in the professional sports industry – I presume in sports that are… you know… progressive in stat based analysis like baseball and soccer. His writing has appeared in the Wall Street Journal, among other publications.
*right now the working formula is his corsi number/Savardian spinorammas per 60 minutes * compete level – truculence quotient. It works out to 11.
Sorry for the deviation. Back to Cullen now.
All this that Cullen’s doing is a very good thing. We can logically deduce he has been exposed to the work of Desjardins and sees the merit in it. Which means finally…… FINALLY…. we perhaps have an ally in the mainstream media who can reach the masses when it comes to faulty narratives and the mind-numbing stupidity that usually comes from those like Don Cherry*.
*If you're going to click on any link from this post, click on the last one. Honestly, when is Don Cherry going to retire? Even he must get tired of his own schtick. Ron MacLean is a better man than I am for not taking that old man out behind the shed and shooting him.
But I’m not here to criticize. I give credit where it’s due. Cullen has written about the volatility of shooting percentage before, something we fervently believe in and promote here. And today he did this, -- link, a fair and well-researched post-mortem on the Edmonton Oilers but more importantly, an analysis based on tangible things like shot differential while limiting the use of empty terms like big body presence and tenacity.
Not only that, but he promotes the website, www.behindthenet.ca, that stats guys like us find indispensible. See, all that balderdash of PDO, Fenwick, points per 60, and zonestarts can be found here and is a creation of Gabriel Desjardins who is 49 years old, obese, wears bifocals, lives only on a diet of cheetos, resides in his mother’s basement, and has never watched a hockey game before in his life. No really, he doesn’t even know what icing is he’s such a nerd.
When he’s not looking at a spreadsheet to try and figure out the formula for how many beach babes Drew Doughty drills per month*, Desjardins has a master’s degree from Cal Berkley in electrical engineering and is an analytics consultant in the professional sports industry – I presume in sports that are… you know… progressive in stat based analysis like baseball and soccer. His writing has appeared in the Wall Street Journal, among other publications.
*right now the working formula is his corsi number/Savardian spinorammas per 60 minutes * compete level – truculence quotient. It works out to 11.
Sorry for the deviation. Back to Cullen now.
All this that Cullen’s doing is a very good thing. We can logically deduce he has been exposed to the work of Desjardins and sees the merit in it. Which means finally…… FINALLY…. we perhaps have an ally in the mainstream media who can reach the masses when it comes to faulty narratives and the mind-numbing stupidity that usually comes from those like Don Cherry*.
*If you're going to click on any link from this post, click on the last one. Honestly, when is Don Cherry going to retire? Even he must get tired of his own schtick. Ron MacLean is a better man than I am for not taking that old man out behind the shed and shooting him.
April 17, 2011
Playoff Performers And Shooting Percentage
Every year, the playoffs create heroes and goats that build and shatter player reputations. Fans and media hold the highest regard for players who toil on middle lines during the regular season but suddenly become indispensable in the second season – both in goal scoring and compete level*. Think of John Druce, Fernando Pisani, and Max Talbot. Early candidates this year include Janick Hansen, Darren Helm, and Jason Chimera. It’s the same song and dance every year. All these guys are third line plugs until the playoffs. Then in one magical spring they became hockey gods. Both fans and media can’t bestow the ultimate compliments any player can receive fast enough – “big game player”, “playoff performer”, “clutch”.
*If I hear Pierre Maguire mention the phrase “compete level” one more time, I’m going to suffocate a small child. What does that even mean – that some players try much harder than others? Ignoring that quantifying someone’s “compete level” is impossible and based entirely on assumption, I’ll still take Alexei Kovalev over Mathieu Darche, thank you very much.
One thing we talk a little about on this blog is unsustainable percentages. Any player can look like Mike Bossy over a short amount of time* and shooting percentage is a great way to see whether or not their hot streak is an illusion or not. For example, the average NHL player shoots about 9%. Players with above average shots shoot a little higher – maybe 11-13% -- bad ones a little lower.
Over a five or ten game stretch, shooting percentages are very fickle. However, over the course of half a season or more, things start to even up and guys will tread towards their career average. In the end, it all boils down to basic common sense. What’s a bigger reflection of Fernando Pisani’s shooting ability, his 24 game playoff stretch where he shot 29% or his 450+ regular season games where he averages 12.5%?
Looking at it that way, it’s not shocking that each and every one of the examples from prior years – Pisani, Durce, and Talbot – couldn’t turn a 25-game hot streak into something sustainable. I mean, if Pisani has some kind of talent to score goals in big games, why did he revert right back to ho-hum mediocrity for the rest of his career? Guess playing in games to qualify for the playoffs aren’t important enough for these guys. I mean, if Jordan Eberle cared about every game like he cares about World Junior finals, the Oilers could have actually made the playoffs this year. Selfish prick.
*The media will often chalk up a goal scoring streak to confidence, playing loose, and having fun out there. If a player goes 20 games without scoring however, it’s because they’re gripping the stick too tightly, pressing too much, or whatever other nonsense someone can convince their copy editor to publish. God I love sports journalism.
On the flip side are the stars. Naturally, those who get you to the playoffs are the ones who are supposed to lead you through them. So when the likes of Joe Thornton delivers less than what is expected of him based on the regular season, the dreaded “can’t elevate his game in the playoffs,” axiom gets tossed around like a playboy at an army camp.
Last year, poor Alexander Semin was raked through the coals after Washington’s first round knockout at the hands of Montreal. Semin scored 40 goals during the regular season but couldn’t muster a single one against the Habs as the first seeded Capitals fell in seven games. Looking at his individual shot rates though, Semin was more effective player during the playoffs. In seven games against Montreal, Semin fired an unbelievable amount of shots – 44 on Canadien goaltenders. During his 40 goal regular season he averaged a little under 4 per game. But as bad luck would have it, he just couldn’t find the back of the net. Stuff happens*.
*This year, Semin has shook off all the anti-clutch that plagued him and scored the overtime winner in game one against the Rangers. Not counting those games against Montreal last year, he’s a 12% shooter in the playoffs.
This year I fear Marian Gaborik is headed for the same fate as Semin. Pierre Maguire has already started the whispers. That Marian Gaborik has to get going. That in his last 10 playoff games he hasn’t scored. That he’s got to find a way to be effective in the playoffs. That he needs to elevate his game because he’s not good enough for the Rangers right now. Yadda yadda yadda.
Enough Pierre, you nerdy oompa-loompa. Gaborik will be fine. He might not score this series but it’s not because he can’t find a way to elevate his game in the playoffs. He somehow found a way to lead Minnesota to the conference final in 2003 and scored 9 goals in 18 games then (on 18% shooting). He hasn’t forgotten how to score. Sometimes, the percentages just aren’t your friends. If you wait around long enough though, they’ll turn and make you look like Fernando Pisani.
Speaking of ol’ Pies, Chicago could use some of that playoff shooting magic to dig themselves out of their hole right about now. I guess the games still don’t matter enough for him to raise his compete level yet. Give it time. I'm sure it'll come.
*If I hear Pierre Maguire mention the phrase “compete level” one more time, I’m going to suffocate a small child. What does that even mean – that some players try much harder than others? Ignoring that quantifying someone’s “compete level” is impossible and based entirely on assumption, I’ll still take Alexei Kovalev over Mathieu Darche, thank you very much.
One thing we talk a little about on this blog is unsustainable percentages. Any player can look like Mike Bossy over a short amount of time* and shooting percentage is a great way to see whether or not their hot streak is an illusion or not. For example, the average NHL player shoots about 9%. Players with above average shots shoot a little higher – maybe 11-13% -- bad ones a little lower.
Over a five or ten game stretch, shooting percentages are very fickle. However, over the course of half a season or more, things start to even up and guys will tread towards their career average. In the end, it all boils down to basic common sense. What’s a bigger reflection of Fernando Pisani’s shooting ability, his 24 game playoff stretch where he shot 29% or his 450+ regular season games where he averages 12.5%?
Looking at it that way, it’s not shocking that each and every one of the examples from prior years – Pisani, Durce, and Talbot – couldn’t turn a 25-game hot streak into something sustainable. I mean, if Pisani has some kind of talent to score goals in big games, why did he revert right back to ho-hum mediocrity for the rest of his career? Guess playing in games to qualify for the playoffs aren’t important enough for these guys. I mean, if Jordan Eberle cared about every game like he cares about World Junior finals, the Oilers could have actually made the playoffs this year. Selfish prick.
*The media will often chalk up a goal scoring streak to confidence, playing loose, and having fun out there. If a player goes 20 games without scoring however, it’s because they’re gripping the stick too tightly, pressing too much, or whatever other nonsense someone can convince their copy editor to publish. God I love sports journalism.
On the flip side are the stars. Naturally, those who get you to the playoffs are the ones who are supposed to lead you through them. So when the likes of Joe Thornton delivers less than what is expected of him based on the regular season, the dreaded “can’t elevate his game in the playoffs,” axiom gets tossed around like a playboy at an army camp.
Last year, poor Alexander Semin was raked through the coals after Washington’s first round knockout at the hands of Montreal. Semin scored 40 goals during the regular season but couldn’t muster a single one against the Habs as the first seeded Capitals fell in seven games. Looking at his individual shot rates though, Semin was more effective player during the playoffs. In seven games against Montreal, Semin fired an unbelievable amount of shots – 44 on Canadien goaltenders. During his 40 goal regular season he averaged a little under 4 per game. But as bad luck would have it, he just couldn’t find the back of the net. Stuff happens*.
*This year, Semin has shook off all the anti-clutch that plagued him and scored the overtime winner in game one against the Rangers. Not counting those games against Montreal last year, he’s a 12% shooter in the playoffs.
This year I fear Marian Gaborik is headed for the same fate as Semin. Pierre Maguire has already started the whispers. That Marian Gaborik has to get going. That in his last 10 playoff games he hasn’t scored. That he’s got to find a way to be effective in the playoffs. That he needs to elevate his game because he’s not good enough for the Rangers right now. Yadda yadda yadda.
Enough Pierre, you nerdy oompa-loompa. Gaborik will be fine. He might not score this series but it’s not because he can’t find a way to elevate his game in the playoffs. He somehow found a way to lead Minnesota to the conference final in 2003 and scored 9 goals in 18 games then (on 18% shooting). He hasn’t forgotten how to score. Sometimes, the percentages just aren’t your friends. If you wait around long enough though, they’ll turn and make you look like Fernando Pisani.
Speaking of ol’ Pies, Chicago could use some of that playoff shooting magic to dig themselves out of their hole right about now. I guess the games still don’t matter enough for him to raise his compete level yet. Give it time. I'm sure it'll come.
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