Playoff Picks -- Round 1

For stats guys like us at the Importance of Being Truculent, the playoffs are especially irksome times. It is the playoffs when the games become magnified and the intangible qualities that we hate so much here – experience, youthful enthusiasm, heart, clutch goaltending, and big game players – become an even bigger crutch for the media.

With all that in mind, we decided to start a little challenge amongst ourselves. While TSN dissects the first round matchups from every angle and considers the intricacies of each and every team, we are going to pick each playoff matchup based on one stat.

Pierre Maguire might think the Capitals will win because of desire, big body presences, and gumption. I will pick the Capitals solely because their even strength fenwick number is superior to that of the New York Rangers.* And while Damien Cox picks the Bruins because they’re tougher and play with more emotion than the Canadiens, MD is picking the Habs because their powerplay % + penalty kill % is better than Beantown’s.

*A million apologies to my old man for picking against his Broadway Blueshirts. I’m rooting for them. I really am.

I want to say off the top that this little exercise will prove next to nothing. However, I hope people will see that the next time Pierre Lebrun picks the Canucks because they are built for the playoffs, a veteran group, and elevate their games in big moments, he probably just means they’re better and should cite a superior shot differential without going into a million different meaningless and empty reasons.

Nothing else is really needed. Playoff savvy has nothing to do with winning Stanley cups. Talent does.

On to the picks:

Expert Picks

Pierre Lebrun: Caps, Sabres, Bruins, Penguins, Canucks, Sharks, Red Wings, Ducks.

Matthew Barnaby: Caps, Sabres, Bruins, Lightning, Canucks, Sharks, Red Wings, Predators.

Damien Cox: Caps, Sabres, Bruins, Lightning, Canucks, Sharks, Red Wings, Ducks.

Scott Cullen: Caps, Sabres, Bruins, Penguins, Canucks, Sharks, Red Wings, Ducks.

Mike Brophy/Mark Spector: Rangers, Flyers, Bruins, Lightning, Canucks, Sharks, Coyotes, Predators.

Our Picks

Durf: Caps, Sabres, Habs, Penguins, Blackhawks*, Sharks, Red Wings, Predators.

MD: Caps, Sabres, Habs, Penguins, Canucks, Sharks, Red Wings, Ducks.

*I was wrong about something. All year I was touting the Canucks as my Stanley Cup pick which tortured me because I loathed them. But after looking into the numbers, they’re a terrific team, but not head and shoulders above everyone. Their shot rates are good but not better than Chicago’s and barely better than Detroit’s. Plus, their numbers are inflated somewhat by playing in the league’s worst division. l think there’s a very reasonable chance Chicago knocks them out in round one and it won’t be because Bobby Lou is a choker or the Hawks had more experience like the media would tell you.

So there we have it. I’ll update this at the start of every round and it will be a running competition of interest for us for the next two months.