Playoff Performers And Shooting Percentage

Every year, the playoffs create heroes and goats that build and shatter player reputations. Fans and media hold the highest regard for players who toil on middle lines during the regular season but suddenly become indispensable in the second season – both in goal scoring and compete level*. Think of John Druce, Fernando Pisani, and Max Talbot. Early candidates this year include Janick Hansen, Darren Helm, and Jason Chimera. It’s the same song and dance every year. All these guys are third line plugs until the playoffs. Then in one magical spring they became hockey gods. Both fans and media can’t bestow the ultimate compliments any player can receive fast enough – “big game player”, “playoff performer”, “clutch”.

*If I hear Pierre Maguire mention the phrase “compete level” one more time, I’m going to suffocate a small child. What does that even mean – that some players try much harder than others? Ignoring that quantifying someone’s “compete level” is impossible and based entirely on assumption, I’ll still take Alexei Kovalev over Mathieu Darche, thank you very much.

One thing we talk a little about on this blog is unsustainable percentages. Any player can look like Mike Bossy over a short amount of time* and shooting percentage is a great way to see whether or not their hot streak is an illusion or not. For example, the average NHL player shoots about 9%. Players with above average shots shoot a little higher – maybe 11-13% -- bad ones a little lower.

Over a five or ten game stretch, shooting percentages are very fickle. However, over the course of half a season or more, things start to even up and guys will tread towards their career average. In the end, it all boils down to basic common sense. What’s a bigger reflection of Fernando Pisani’s shooting ability, his 24 game playoff stretch where he shot 29% or his 450+ regular season games where he averages 12.5%?

Looking at it that way, it’s not shocking that each and every one of the examples from prior years – Pisani, Durce, and Talbot – couldn’t turn a 25-game hot streak into something sustainable. I mean, if Pisani has some kind of talent to score goals in big games, why did he revert right back to ho-hum mediocrity for the rest of his career? Guess playing in games to qualify for the playoffs aren’t important enough for these guys. I mean, if Jordan Eberle cared about every game like he cares about World Junior finals, the Oilers could have actually made the playoffs this year. Selfish prick.

*The media will often chalk up a goal scoring streak to confidence, playing loose, and having fun out there. If a player goes 20 games without scoring however, it’s because they’re gripping the stick too tightly, pressing too much, or whatever other nonsense someone can convince their copy editor to publish. God I love sports journalism.

On the flip side are the stars. Naturally, those who get you to the playoffs are the ones who are supposed to lead you through them. So when the likes of Joe Thornton delivers less than what is expected of him based on the regular season, the dreaded “can’t elevate his game in the playoffs,” axiom gets tossed around like a playboy at an army camp.

Last year, poor Alexander Semin was raked through the coals after Washington’s first round knockout at the hands of Montreal. Semin scored 40 goals during the regular season but couldn’t muster a single one against the Habs as the first seeded Capitals fell in seven games. Looking at his individual shot rates though, Semin was more effective player during the playoffs. In seven games against Montreal, Semin fired an unbelievable amount of shots – 44 on Canadien goaltenders. During his 40 goal regular season he averaged a little under 4 per game. But as bad luck would have it, he just couldn’t find the back of the net. Stuff happens*.

*This year, Semin has shook off all the anti-clutch that plagued him and scored the overtime winner in game one against the Rangers. Not counting those games against Montreal last year, he’s a 12% shooter in the playoffs.

This year I fear Marian Gaborik is headed for the same fate as Semin. Pierre Maguire has already started the whispers. That Marian Gaborik has to get going. That in his last 10 playoff games he hasn’t scored. That he’s got to find a way to be effective in the playoffs. That he needs to elevate his game because he’s not good enough for the Rangers right now. Yadda yadda yadda.

Enough Pierre, you nerdy oompa-loompa. Gaborik will be fine. He might not score this series but it’s not because he can’t find a way to elevate his game in the playoffs. He somehow found a way to lead Minnesota to the conference final in 2003 and scored 9 goals in 18 games then (on 18% shooting). He hasn’t forgotten how to score. Sometimes, the percentages just aren’t your friends. If you wait around long enough though, they’ll turn and make you look like Fernando Pisani.

Speaking of ol’ Pies, Chicago could use some of that playoff shooting magic to dig themselves out of their hole right about now. I guess the games still don’t matter enough for him to raise his compete level yet. Give it time. I'm sure it'll come.