I really do enjoy this recent tear the Leafs have went on. All this talk about Dion Phaneuf’s leadership bringing the team together, Phil Kessel having his confidence back, and the trades creating a new locker room atmosphere has me positively optimistic about Brian Burke falling into the same trap as Kevin Lowe in 2007.
You see, the Oilers were awful that year. They toiled near the bottom of the standings before inexplicably going on an insane run in March and April to finish just out of the playoffs. See, Edmonton’s decision makers had no idea what a PDO number was and got tricked into thinking their team was better than they were.*
*It`s not only Edmonton who has been tricked, it`s a long and dirty list believe you me. Joe Sacco can thank his Jack Adams award finalist and inevitable firing on PDO.
Quick backgrounder on a PDO number for those who don`t know. A PDO number is simply even strength shooting percentage + even strength save percentage. League average is 1.000. The theory* goes that every team will regress to the mean (1000) over a period of time. While there is a cushion from about .993 to 1.007 that can be considered reasonable, a team below .993 is thought to be getting abnormally unlucky while a team over 1.007 is getting fortunate and cannot sustain their rate.
*Frankly, I don`t think it`s much of a theory anymore. It`s been proven time and again to be on the mark as a reliable predictor of long-term results. Only in extreme cases – the 1980’s Oilers – have teams been able to maintain a high PDO year over year.
Think it sounds like hogwash? Well let’s do a case study. Last year, Colorado was the league's feel good story. In 2009-2010, the Avs surprised everyone by squeaking into the playoffs on the back of a league best 1016 PDO (926 es save percentage, 9.0 shooting percentage). People with IQ's over their hourly wage knew it wasn't sustainable going into 2011 and predicted the Avs to struggle. The hockey media talked about balderdash like chemistry and youthful enthusiasm being the catalyst for an improvement in this year.
Currently, Colorado sits comfortably at 14th in the west with a PDO of exactly 1000.
At Christmas, Dallas had the league’s best PDO while New Jersey was far and away the worst. Twenty-five games later and it looks like things have started to correct themselves. Dallas was overachieving, New Jersey underachieving. They’ve both regressed to the mean.
What does that have to do with the Leafs? Well, the gods are smiling on Toronto just like the COTU thought it was meant to be. Prior to the game against Chicago on Saturday, the Leafs were 6-0-3 in their last 9 games and there were more than a few whispers about playoffs.
To put it bluntly, that run was luck-fuelled:
Team ES Shots: 197
Team ES Goals: 16
Team ES Shooting Percentage: 8.12
Opponents ES Shots: 235
Opponents ES Goals: 14
Team ES Save Percentage: .940
Team PDO: 1022
The Leafs were getting flat out murdered by shot rates over that run (Fenwick percentage of .449) and while their own conversion percentage on shots was normal, if not a tad low, James Reimer was Dominik Hasek on the clear.
Here’s where it all comes full circle from the beginning and why I hope the Leafs keep riding the percentages like Edmonton did in 2007. Kevin Lowe thought his team’s late season run was skill moreso than luck and it set the rebuild back 3 years. I hope Burke does the same. I hope he sees the late season run, the near playoff berth, and feels pressure from the fans to go for it next year by signing a couple of free agents when it’s probably in their best interests to stand pat.*
*As much as it hurts, there are some good things happening in Toronto. While I sort of undermined him above, James Reimer looks to be the real deal with an even strength save percentage of 931. Kulemin also looks like a player as does Nazem Kadri, who is almost hitting that magic 1.0 ppg threshold in his first year at the AHL.
The big club’s recent success is mostly smoke and mirrors at the moment. They really aren’t very good. For the time being, that doesn’t seem like it will change. If it somehow does though, this blog becomes a lot less interesting.
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